The year 2018 saw China’s monetary policy carefully sail through the “reefs,” as economic slowd
own and surging exchange rate risk left little room for adjustment. However, since the be
ginning of this year, major internal and external changes have broken the dilemma.
From the internal perspective, in January 2019, the “loose credit s
upply” saw improvement in terms of both volume and structure, barriers to implem
enting monetary policy removed, which is expected to guide the Chinese economy to stabilize in the first quarter.
First of all, China’s outstanding broad money supply, or M2, grew 8.4 percent year-on-year in January, while new yuan loans and social fina
ncing both soared to historic monthly highs at 3.23 trillion yuan ($478 billion) and 4.64 trillion yu
an, respectively. The figures showed that “loose fiscal policy” has had a positive effect on credit supply to the pri
vate sector, thus pushing up the growth rate for total social financing. It is expected that in the first quarter of 2019, wi
th the gradual implementation of “loose fiscal policy,” the volume of “loose credit supply” will remain at a high level.
is a region in transition. Since the beginning of the 21st century, thi
s region has come across political struggle between new capitalistic groups and old b
ureaucratic factions, as well as political turmoil as a result of the huge gap between the rich and poor.
Indonesia is also going to hold a presidential election in April. These upcoming electi
ons have sent a clear signal that Southeast Asian countries long for political stability and development.
The Thai election can give confidence to other countries in the region. After all, with very few exc
eptions, the junta can return power to the people through elections.
As for China-Thailand relations, historically, no matter which
government came to power after several coups, the direction of bilateral ties has never chang
ed. The cooperation between China and Thailand has become the common aspiration of the two peoples and is in their mutual interest.